Eight Reasons for Conservative Optimism
Yes, as a conservative, it’s been a tough road the last few years. But I’d like to offer some points we can be optimistic about in the next few years (provided we don’t suffer a total economic collapse).
Polling Data Says We’re Still a Right Leaning Country.
While polling data consistently shows a fairly even split between Republicans and Democrats, the bi-partisan Battleground Poll for many years has a peculiar stat on Question D3 which asks if you consider yourself a conservative, a moderate, or a liberal. Only 2% consider themselves moderate, and those that call themselves “conservative” out number those that consider themselves “liberal” by nearly a two-to-one margin year in and year out. Why else would the current leftist president feel the need while campaigning to portray himself as moderate and even conservative in some respects, constantly tossing out Regan-esk phrases in speech after speech.
Run a thoughtful, principled, articulate true conservative, and they will win every time.
If we Run Conservatives, Conservatives will be Back.
4.1 million fewer Republicans voted in 2008 than in 2004. It’s highly doubtful more than a tiny fraction abandoned conservative principles and switched teams. Many likely stayed home because they were principled conservatives and didn’t perceive a dimes worth of difference between the wishy-washy moderate RINO on the ticket, and president Obama. I would dare to bet most are now re-thinking that strategy.
RINOs are Out, DINOs are In.
While I can’t point to any specific stats, I get the feeling from a variety of anecdotal resources that RINOs (liberal Republicans) have been losing out while many of the new Democratic congress members in the last few years are more conservative (DINOs) than those in the Democratic leadership. This would lend support to the above Battleground Polling data.
History and Odds are on Our Side.
In midterms, the party in power in generally loses seats. By the very nature of the seats up in 2008, the cards were stacked against republicans and that trend will flip in 2010. According to Karl Rove “Right now, we know that there are at least 70 if not more Democrats who sit in red districts….there are only five Republicans in districts that John Kerry won in 2004.” What’s more, the 2010 census, barring any political shenanigans, should result in the addition of congressional seats in “red states”, and the loss of seats in “blue states.”
The Current Administration is Over-reaching.
While the president’s polling numbers appear high at first glance, historically speaking at this point in a president’s first term, they’re actually not that impressive. What’s more, when you poll individually issue by issue, the president and democrats stances are quite often on the losing side. The fast paced, hard-left agenda being driven here will increasingly be questioned as the celebrity appeal wears thin.
Conservatives in the GOP are Starting to Galvanize.
No Republican in the House and only three in the Senate voted for the Stimulus Bill while not a single Republican in Congress supported Obama’s extravagant budget.
There is No Bush or Obama on the Ticket.
Eight years of Bush bashing (some of it warranted) took its toll on the the Republican party in general. President Obama brought out a lot of first time voters who where caught up in the hipe (or should I say hope), but lack any depth in terms of core ideological principles. My money is that a significant chunk of those new voters won’t be nearly as likely to go to the polls in 2010 for people they’ve never heard of (except for those that ACORN “helped” of course).
Democrats own the Crisis Response.
Unfortunately, we know the results of the current spending and increase in government size and intervention in the market place, not to mention the dramatic inflation to come. While I’m as optimistic as anyone about the ability of American businesses to overcome adversity, it’s highly unlikely the economy will stage a spectacular rebound in the next 18 months. Democrats completely own the response to this crisis and will be on the defensive so long as conservatives present a clear alternative.
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